NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook

SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK: September - November 2007

AVERAGE TO WARM SPRING; LA NINA LIKELY

NIWA’s National Climate Centre says temperatures are likely to be average or above for the spring (September – November) period over most of the country. According to the centre’s seasonal climate outlook there is only a 20-30% chance of cool (below average) conditions over much of the country.

At the same time drier than normal conditions are likely in the South Island and western areas of the North Island with only a 20% chance of above normal rainfall, soil moisture and river flows. That picture reverses in the east of the North Island, where the 3 month rainfall and river flow outlook is above normal, with only a 20% chance of below normal rainfall, soil moisture and river flows.

The Centre says La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific are very likely to develop this spring. There is a 60% chance of La Niña, with less than a 10% chance of El Niño conditions developing.

The prevailing westerly winds, which can be particularly strong during spring, are likely to be weaker and less frequent than normal for the three months as a whole, with easterly winds at times.

ENDS